Autor: Flanagan, Josef

Buch: Quest for Self-Knowledge

Titel: Quest for Self-Knowledge

Stichwort: Schemes of Recurrence; Definition: Wahrscheinlichkeit (probability); Beispiel: Kartenspiel

Kurzinhalt: Probability, therefore, may be defined as the intelligibility of chance. Or probability is an intelligible correlation of possibilities ordered by expected, idealized frequencies.

Textausschnitt: 23/4 The most significant property of this notion of a cycle is that the temporal sequence of events ends in such a way as to initiate the new cycle. For example, middle C on the piano ends a diatonic scale of do, re, mi, so, fa, la, ti, do and, at the same time, initiates the next diatonic series; do is both the last and the first note. Thus, a linear series of musical tones may also be understood as a cyclical series. The same diatonic scale may be expanded into a chromatic scale and then into the much more complex harmonic circle of fifths. Within such cyclical contexts, endless variations of melodic and harmonic sequences can be constructed. However, there is a hidden assumption in such cyclical order, namely, that the conditions for the repeating cycle will be provided continuously, whereas the opposite assumption is at the basis of statistical laws. Since statistical laws are also intelligible forms, there is no a priori reason for excluding the possibility that the actual order of the universe may be based on the assumptions of statistical thinking, as well as on classical thinking. (101; Fs)

24/4 We may ask whether we can combine the traditional notion of continuous cyclical processes with the contemporary scientific notion of statistical regularities which assumes discontinuities. Not only are the two compatible, but together they provide scientists with a much more flexible notion of design or world-order and, as we shall see, such a design opens up the possibility for dynamic evolutionary developments. (101; Fs)

25/4 Let us take as an example the game of poker. The game begins by shuffling the pack of cards in order to break up any prior sequence and to create a random mixture of fifty-two cards. The challenge for the players is to play their cards in the wisest way possible. After each hand is played the cycle is repeated, starting again with a random mixture of the cards. On the assumption that each player receives five out of a possible fifty-two cards, statistical scientists have worked out the possible combinations that can be constructed out of the five cards which the players receive and the probabilities of these combinations occurring. An informed player has some understanding of these odds, namely, certain combinations of cards will occur and recur more or less frequently. In the long run, the person who plays according to these ideal probabilities will be able to set up a repeating cycle of winning. Here we have an example of a cycle of recurring events that takes place in a random assortment of cards. (101; Fs)

26/4 Most significantly, this cycle does not begin and end on the assumption of continuous conditions being provided. The conditions for the winning scheme are discontinuous and involve a wide flexibility of strategic decisions according to the random or discontinuous reception of various possible combinations that each player receives. The cycle can begin with any given set of five cards, but the wise player operating under those conditions will still win in the long run. Moreover, the longer the game goes on the more evident will be the winning cycle of the best players. When understood in this way, the game of chance is not a game of chance at all, but a game in which possible, probable, and actual schemes of events keep recurring. In each hand that is dealt, there are five actual cards out of a possible fifty-two. A player will keep certain combinations of the five and discard the others according to a strategy of probabilities of receiving certain final combinations that will actually be played. To speak of poker as a game of chance explains nothing. But to specify the game in terms of probability is to 'explain' the game. Probability, therefore, may be defined as the intelligibility of chance. Or probability is an intelligible correlation of possibilities ordered by expected, idealized frequencies. (101f; Fs)