Autor: Melchin, R. Kenneth

Buch: History, Ethics and Emegent Probability

Titel: History, Ethics and Emegent Probability

Stichwort: Emergente Wahrscheinlichkeit (emergent probability); Erklärungsmodell für die Beziehung zw. den verschiedenen Schichten; Beispiel: 2 Körper im Raum; gemeinsame "Materie" der Arten

Kurzinhalt: Emergent probability would understand world processes in terms of conditioned series of schemes of recurrence that emerge, continue functioning and disappear in accordance with successive schedules of probability.

Textausschnitt: 4.4 Emergent Probability

23/4 Emergent probability is Lonergan's proposal for a world view that could account for the evolution or emergence of new intelligible unities onto the scene of world process and thus account for the relations among explanatory 'levels' or strata of science. Emergent probability would understand world processes in terms of conditioned series of schemes of recurrence that emerge, continue functioning and disappear in accordance with successive schedules of probability. And it is the acts of intelligence which grasp the absence of system in the coincidental manifold of laws operative in the environment, on the one hand, and the operation of system linking the events of the scheme and explaining its recurrence, on the other hand, which distinguish the explanatory structure of this account.1 (108; Fs)

24/4 Sets of laws interact randomly and this interaction results in classes of events recurring with certain f-probable frequencies. At any stage, world process consists of a huge number of sets of variously interacting classical laws yielding lists and lists of classes of events recurring with corresponding schedules of f-probability. At a certain point a given set of types of events recurs, but because the events do not occur within an appropriate temporal or spatial range or succession, they interact only minimally. However, given subtle changes in the boundary conditions of the environment, or given the coincidental occurrence of the events in an appropriate time and place, the types of events in the set are such that they would form a chain or a conjoined set. Thus the first occurrence of the scheme ensures the continued recurrence of the scheme. The pattern recurs because each event conditions the occurrence of the next, or a single event conditions the occurrence of them all. When the complete set of environmental conditions is arranged so as to permit the events linking into a scheme, then the probability of the whole set of events occurring jumps from the product of the original probabilities to a new, higher probability. For at this point the occurrence of any one event ensures the occurrence of the whole set.2 (108f; Fs)

25/4 Two bodies moving through space will continue at relatively constant velocities in relatively straight lines until they come within a particular distance of each other. If their masses are in the proper proportion and if their directions of approach are suitable, then, granting the absence of other masses of significant proportion, the two bodies will begin to orbit around each other in any of a large number of possible (more or less perturbed) elliptical orbits. Thus a systematic process or recurring scheme of events emerges where previously none functioned. A particular set of selected physical laws and numerical values explains the shape of the particular ellipses and thus the schematic or systematic relationships among the events which constitute the recurring pattern of motions. The initial velocities and directions of the two masses and the absence of other masses conditioned the initial occurrence of the patterned motions. But they do not explain the pattern. It is this difference in types of conditions and relations that characterizes emergent probability as an explanatory heuristic. The initial conditions of masses, velocities and directions are one set from among a very large number of possible and probable sets of outcomes of antecedent conjunctions of laws and conditions. The occurrence of any one from this very large number of sets of masses, velocities and directions would suffice to condition the emergence of one or another elliptical orbiting pattern. But it is the fact of this particular fulfillment and not its explanation that is relevant to the system which defines the recurring motion. And this fact is understood not in terms of another classical explanation but in terms of the probabilities associated with the occurrence of the fulfilling conditions.3 (109; Fs)

26/4 In another example the presence of liquid water on the earth's surface and the presence of suitable levels of solar heat will result in the occurrence of the events, evaporation and condensation. But when the atmosphere has stabilized within a suitable range of mean temperatures, when glaciated depressions on continental land masses have been filled to overflowing, when the accumulation and melting of glacial ice have settled into one of a large number of relatively stable patterns, and when the movements of global air masses have settled within a relatively stable range of patterns around and over land forms, then the overall global rates of evaporation, precipitation, surface and underground runoff will settle into a systematic equilibrium arrangement. And this stable hydrological cycle or scheme can itself operate as one of the fulfilling conditions for the emergence and survival of various terrestrial life forms. A complex set of physical, chemical, geological and meteorological laws will explain the particular set of values and relations that define the systematic operation of the water cycle. But only the laws of probability will account for the fulfilling conditions that made possible the actual cycle as it has operated at various moments in the earth's geological history. (109f; Fs)

27/4 The explanation of any stage of world process seeks to conceive that stage in terms of the possibilities and probabilities present in the conditioned series of schemes of the previous stage. The events that recur systematically in the future stage recur only non-systematically in the previous stage, and the movement from the earlier to the later stage consists in the fulfillment of the conditions that enable the events to form a scheme and thus to recur in a certain pattern or order of succession with some regularity. Thus there will be a succession of distinct types of acts of understanding that will be involved in the understanding of any stage of world process. (110; Fs)

28/4 First. A direct insight or a unified set of direct insights grasps the particular systematic relationships among events in schemes and among schemes in a seriation. The intelligibilities defining systematically recurring patterns of events during any stage of world process will be classically unified sets of laws, events and particular values. But the fact that this stage operates in accordance with these particulars and not others is not to be explained entirely in terms of the systematic intelligibilities defining the schemes and seriations. For with respect to previous stages of world process, this stage was merely one among a large number of possible and probable next stages. Thus the account of the systematic relations defining schemes and seriations, far from constituting a complete account of that stage of world process, constitutes only a partial account. The immanent intelligibilities of the schemes and seriations of this stage were one set among a range of alternatives awaiting realization through the fulfillment of conditions. And the alternatives presented by the previous stage of world process are to be understood in terms of the f-probabilities associated with the recurrence of respective ranges of constituent events and conditions.4 (110; Fs)

29/4 Second. The actual schemes and series are conceived as one among a number of f-probable next stages in a succession of conditioned series of recurrence schemes. Among the possibilities presented by the previous stage some will be f-probable for some possible seriations will have their constituent schemes and events actually functioning with some f-probable frequency. Some schemes have sets of conditions fulfilled within appropriate spatial and temporal ranges and so will have an f-probability of emergence. And other seriations have the disadvantage of requiring the sufficiently frequent recurrence of defensive circles to disarm actually occurring events or schemes that would interfere with their systematic operation. The point here is that while a scheme or seriation consists in the systematic operation of its constituent events or schemes, still in cases such events or schemes will be recurring in relative isolation with some f-probable frequency before they begin to function together systematically. Whether or not they begin to function as a scheme or seriation depends upon whether or not a set of conditions essential to their systematic interlinkage is fulfilled. And so the various f-probable next stages will be the various patterns in which actually recurring events or schemes could combine to form a system. They will be probable next stages because there will be (f-probable) frequencies associated with the actually recurring constituent events. And there will be f-probabilities associated with the occurrence or sufficiently frequent recurrence of other conditions which would permit the events to form schemes.5 (110f; Fs)

30/4 Third. But while at any stage there is a manifold of f-probable next stages, only one of these next stages actually occurs. The final act of intelligence which completes the understanding of the actually occurring seriation is that form of inverse insight which is the basis for the statistical form of knowledge. The set of conditions which is actually fulfilled for a set of events and schemes to form a seriation is so fulfilled in accordance with a particular set of numerical values. Similarly the event or scheme which initiates the operation of one of the schemes or seriations that has achieved a probability of emergence, occurs itself in accordance with a particular set of values. But particular cases diverge non-systematically from probabilities and so there will be a residual divergence of such particular values from the statistical norms associated with the various f-probable next stages. This residual divergence corresponds to the absence of system in the complete set of environmental conditions associated with the operation of the actual seriation. And so this third and final act of intelligence, the inverse insight, will complete the understanding of the conditioned series of schemes of recurrence.6 (111; Fs)

31/4 The result of such a succession of stages of fulfilling conditions and schematic interactions of probably recurring events would be the emergence of a higher order genus of 'things.'7 And contrary to the anticipations of the determinist or the naive realist, such a higher order genus of things would be irreducible. For the various evolutionary species can only be explained completely in the terms and relations of their own laws which grasp the intelligibility in the systematically recurring schemes and series of schemes operative in their own physical, chemical or biological sphere. The 'matter' common to all such species would not be conceived as some aggregate of prime particles, but as the concretely intelligible set of recurrence schemes which can be understood in all instances of their specific life form and which alone suffices to explain their functioning.8 (111; Fs) (notabene)