Autor: Melchin, R. Kenneth

Buch: History, Ethics and Emegent Probability

Titel: History, Ethics and Emegent Probability

Stichwort: Emergente Wahrscheinlichkeit (emergent probability) - Finalität; Sackgasse der Geschichte - Hoffnung (dynamische Struktur allen Seins)

Kurzinhalt: ... the dynamism of world process is precisely this movement towards higher intelligibility ...
Thus Finality is as applicable to human history as it is to biological evolution.

Textausschnitt: 4.6 Finality

36/4 As an evolutionary hypothesis emergent probability includes some implications about world process that would be open to verification. Since schemes operate only when and where their conditions are fulfilled and since the conditions for higher order schemes are the operation of the appropriate lower order schemes, the successive realization of schemes will involve spatial concentrations. Later schemes will be found only where earlier schemes are functioning. But since the later schemes are only probable, not every set of earlier schemes will lead to sets of later schemes. So the occurrence of later and later schemes will be restricted to fewer and fewer places. And until their conditions are fulfilled the probabilities associated with the occurrence of later and later schemes will be lower and lower. However, such low probabilities for later schemes can be offset by large numbers of instances and long intervals of time. For what occurs only once in a million years or once in a million places will occur a thousand times in a billion places or a billion years.1 (113f; Fs)

37/4 Furthermore since the emergence of higher and higher order schemes is the movement towards increasing intelligibility or system (for the realization of every recurrence scheme is the emergence of system where previously none existed) it would seem that, at least to date, the dynamism of world process is precisely this movement towards higher intelligibility. At least to date the fact of such large numbers and long intervals of time seems verified. And, granted that sufficiently large numbers and sufficiently long intervals of time remain fulfilled, it would seem that the continued, increasingly systematic character of the universe could be assured. For with large numbers and long intervals of time the occurrence of the probable is only prevented by systematic intervention. And actual frequencies do not diverge systematically from probabilities, so while interventions do occur they do not recur systematically. Granted the continued absence of such intervention, the large initial numbers and the long intervals of time would guarantee the ever higher realization of system.2 (114; Fs)

38/4 Since the probabilities of emergence and survival are distinct there will be stability and development as well as breakdowns and blind alleys. And so sufficiently large numbers and long intervals of time conceivably could assure at least one situation in which development occurred. Later schemes generally need earlier schemes for their emergence and survival. While the disappearance of such earlier schemes would lead to the breakdown of the later schemes, the continued operation of such earlier schemes, their development of defensive circles, and their monopolization of materials would tend to secure the stability of the later and more developed schemes. When such defensive circles and imprisoned materials occur, the stability of the developed schemes can have the added negative effect of preventing any further development or the continued development of higher and higher order schemes. Thus there occur blind alleys. But development beyond such blind alleys would be possible if earlier schemes with high probabilities of emergence and low probabilities of survival formed floating populations on which later schemes could depend. Sufficiently large numbers and sufficiently long intervals of time could conceivably ensure that at least one situation would prevail in which world process realized continued development. For despite breakdowns, blind alleys and the consequent need for new starts in both new and old locations, the large initial numbers and long intervals of time would allow development to progress beyond such obstacles.3 (114; Fs)

39/4 The presentation so far might seem a wild and farfetched speculation moving far beyond the presented evidence, leaping gaily to conclusions about evolutionary processes on the basis of suppositions about knowing. It is certainly true that any kind of careful verification of an hypothesis such as emergent probability would demand a detailed study of evidence in every sector of the natural and human sciences. And there is no question that this detailed study remains to be carried out. But the value of this speculation so far can only be appreciated insofar as some implications of the world view, emergent probability, are investigated and understood. The fact remains that the implementation of heuristics in world views does not await verification and no world view to date would seem to stand up very well under careful scrutiny by a community of scholars.4 (114f; Fs)

40/4 Furthermore, the power of world views in uncovering and obscuring data and insights in every branch of the sciences is well known.5 If there is recognized some place for a branch of the human sciences which studies our dynamic orientation to truth, to beauty, to value, to love and to God, then there will be required a structured account of world processes which understands this dynamic orientation as, in some way, in continuity with the structure and orientation of all of reality. In addition, if we are to hope for some possibility of life for our children in an age which seems to present a number of blind alleys in the set of alternative historical futures, then some ground for this hope needs to be investigated. And these grounds will need to be understood, again in some way, in continuity with the dynamic structure of all of being. Emergent probability represents one man's attempts to recover an element in the procedures of contemporary natural and human sciences (the statistical element) and to integrate that element into a world view which, at least conceivably, could explain both this dynamic orientation and some grounds for hope, in a world view whose structure is equally applicable to any dimension of world process. The verification of the relevance and truth of emergent probability remains to begin on a grand scale. The possibilities suggested here are presented as evidence that it ought to begin. (115; Fs)

41/4 One final aspect of emergent probability remains to be discussed, the notion of finality. There is considerable evidence that world process is not static but dynamic. Evolutionary development to date provides evidence of at least one instance of world process wherein higher orders of integration have emerged from lower orders. And every instance of human cognition would seem to provide further evidence that this direction towards higher order integration is in fact continuing. Lonergan names this structured orientation towards higher integration, this upward dynamism, finality.6 Evolutionary development has progressed, at least on this planet, through successively higher systematic integrations of lower order manifolds and each higher integration has been the realization of new intelligibility or system. The fact is, too, that men and women are neither emotionally, intellectually nor responsibly static or satisfied. We are curious, we spontaneously gravitate towards other life forms, we ask questions, we make discoveries, we organize our lives around practical projects, we love and care for ourselves and each other through the responsible development and implementation of cognitionally mediated skills. And in all such acts the drive is towards the actuation of the intelligibility immanent in being or the realization of new being in intelligible projects and plans of action. Finality expresses the fact that the directed dynamism that has been operative in probably emerging world process continues to be operative in the cognitional acts of women and men. Thus Finality is as applicable to human history as it is to biological evolution.7 (115f; Fs)

42/4 While finality makes a limited claim about world process, it is nonetheless not an insignificant claim. Finality excludes a static world process, a world view that has the structure of the logical syllogism, an axiomatic system of postulates and deduced conclusions. It also excludes an indeterminate or totally haphazard movement to world process. For despite breakdowns, blind alleys, spatial constrictions and infrequent leaps forward, the successively higher integrations of lower order manifolds occur and recur according to probabilities. And while a systematic intervention could conceivably prevent what is probable from occurring, such an intervention would constitute a radical change in the structure of world process.8 (116; Fs)

43/4 Finally, while finality is a predicate of proportionate being, being whose intelligibility is conceivably proportionate to the potential capacities of human cognkional skills,56 it is also a datum for and the occasion for a question about the term or objective of this dynamism of world process, transcendent being. Thus when an answer to this question about the objective of dynamically oriented world process is formulated and affirmed, such an answer would also expand upon the notion of finality. It is not the purpose of this study to investigate the answer to the question of transcendent being. But it is widely known that Lonergan's Insight chapter nineteen formulates and affirms such an answer.'" (116)